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Is the UN Pact for the Future the real deal or another empty promise? 10 Oct 2024

On 22 September 2024, Nigeria participated alongside other nations at a high-profile summit during the 79th Session of the United Nation General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, where a transformative agreement was adopted to tackle interconnected global issues. The Summit of the Future, where world leaders adopted the Pact for the Future (PFTF), marked the culmination of years of negotiations led by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to reinvigorate the multilateral system. For developing nations, particularly those in Africa, which have been notably vocal in demanding a more representative international system that better serves their interests, this pact presents numerous potential benefits.

The impetus for the pact arises from the recognition that existing global governance structures are inadequate to effectively address contemporary issues. A series of global crises, including climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions, widening inequality, and rapid technological advancements underscore the urgent need for stronger international cooperation. Recognising this, Guterres called for the summit – which brought together heads of state and government, international organisations, business leaders, and civil society – to forge a new international consensus on how to deliver "a better present and safeguard the future.”

The UN Secretary-General emphasised that to create a future fit for our grandchildren, we must reform a system that was built by our grandparents. The adoption of the PFTF by 143 nations marks a pivotal moment in international relations, reflecting a commitment to tackle the intricate challenges of the 21st century. The pact outlines 56 actions that member states have committed to pursue across a broad range of themes, including peace and security, sustainable development and financing, climate change, human rights and gender equality, and global governance reform.

Two attachments to the pact are potential game-changers. They are the Global Digital Compact (GDC) and a Declaration on Future Generations (DFG). The GDC is a comprehensive governance framework for digital technology and artificial intelligence (AI) aimed at achieving a secure digital future for all, among other objectives. The DFG provides concrete steps for ensuring decision making at national and international levels are more inclusive of young people and provide protection for their futures.

The PFTF is very timely for the fact that it enables policymakers to adopt a forward-thinking mindset. Many people now realise that simply reacting to crises as they happen is not optimal. Short-term fixes might help in the moment, but they don’t address the deeper issues we face. The PFTF is a call to action for governments and international organisations to focus on long-term solutions instead. This means thinking ahead and planning for the future rather than just dealing with problems as they arise.

By prioritising long-term strategies, leaders can create policies that not only solve current issues but also prevent similar problems from occurring later. This approach aims to improve life for both today's population and future generations by enshrining a mindset of working towards sustainable solutions that benefit everyone over time, rather than just temporary fixes that may lead to more challenges down the road.

Thinking about it this way, the pact aims to not only meet today's challenges but also secure a better future for all humanity by, for example, modernising international institutions to make them more representative and effective in addressing current global challenges such as inequality, poverty, and hunger. As part of this objective, the UN and its affiliate international financial institutions could potentially be revitalised and made more effective to deliver on their promises. By fostering international cooperation among nations, the PFTF aims to enhance responses to crises such as climate change and pandemics.  

Some of the pact's objectives overlap with those of established frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris Agreement. In this regard, the PFTF would seem to be another layer in the proliferation of global pacts that serve as talk shops for global leaders, especially those from wealthy nations who wield significant influence on international institutions. However, the PFTF is designed to be complementary to both the SDGs and the Paris Agreement.

While these existing frameworks provide specific targets for sustainable development and climate action, the new pact focuses on systemic changes to global cooperation and governance. It aims to create a more effective international system that can accelerate progress and better support the achievement of these existing commitments – which were designed on a multilateral system that is almost 80 years old. The PFTF is also broader in scope, addressing issues such as the reform of the UN Security Council (UNSC), the root causes of conflicts, and AI governance and cybersecurity.

The PFTF holds particular significance for Africa. Specifically, this year's UNGA placed Africa at the forefront of discussions regarding global governance, with former Cameroonian Prime Minister Philémon Yang serving as president of the 79th Session. The pact advocates for reforms in international financial systems to facilitate increased access to development financing for vulnerable countries. This is particularly critical for Africa, where less than 6% of the 32 measurable SDG targets are currently on track to be achieved by 2030, compared to 16% globally, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The continent needs an estimated $1.3 trillion annually to achieve the SDGs. This is in addition to the investments of over $3 trillion African countries require for climate resilience and adaptation.

For a continent with 60% of its population under 25 – and is projected to inhabit half of the world’s youth by 2100 – the PFTF 's emphasis on youth inclusivity and investments in education is vital for Africa's long-term development. The pact's focus on poverty alleviation and social protection aligns with Africa’s needs, especially in the face of economic challenges.

While Africa represents a significant regional bloc within the UN, with nearly 28% of votes, the continent lacks permanent representation in the UN Security Council. With the PFTF's commitment to reforming the council to improve its effectiveness and representation, there is an opportunity to redress the historical under-representation of the continent in the UN system and amplify African voices in global discussions.

For Nigeria, which has struggled to make significant progress on the SDGs and climate neutrality goals, the pact could provide improved access to sustainable financing for development projects, including those outlined in the Energy Transition Plan (ETP) aimed at achieving net zero emission in the country's energy, transport, and industry sectors. The pact is also a wake-up call for Nigeria to modernise its weak and reactionary institutions, making them more responsive in addressing the current economic hardship in the country.

The pact's focus on peacebuilding would provide Nigeria with access to resources, expertise, and international support to address root causes of internal conflict and build lasting peace. A peaceful and secure domestic environment would attract investment, stimulate economic growth, and reduce poverty, helping Nigeria to achieve its development goals.

The PFTF’s objective of bridging the digital divide by connecting all people to the internet and promoting access to technology is particularly relevant for Nigeria, where a significant portion of the population lacks internet access. Bridging this gap is crucial for economic growth, education, and social development.

With a large youth population, Nigeria has a vested interest in ensuring future generations are well educated, empowered, and given a voice in global affairs. The pact's emphasis on youth participation in decision-making and intergenerational equity should give the current leadership in the country pause, ensuring that government policies are not only fair and just, but they also don’t compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Despite its ambitious goals, the pact has inevitably been greeted with scepticism. A group of seven nations, including Russia and Argentina, have expressed reservations about the pact's potential interference in domestic affairs. Critics argue that the pact doesn't sufficiently consider the unique needs of different member states and lacks concrete, actionable mechanisms for mobilising support for implementation. There are also concerns about the lack of clear accountability frameworks to ensure commitments are met. This raises concerns about the pact's ability to translate into tangible outcomes for developing nations.

The concern that the pact must not be yet another global agreement that doesn’t translate into meaningful impact was expressed by none other than the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations's (FAO) Director-General, Qu Dongyu, who intoned the disappointing progress of the SDGs. Speaking at the summit, he said, "We are not on track to achieving any of the global SDG targets, and we see that huge inequalities persist along various dimensions – including wealth, gender, rural areas, and in accessing assets and opportunities."

Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar, delivered a powerful address at the UN summit emphasising the need to ensure the key deliverables of the PFTF are met. He called for the implementation of debt relief measures and increased financial support from developed countries to help nations like Nigeria meet their climate goals. The minister joined other world leaders to caution that the pact's success hinges on the effective implementation and translation of commitments to concrete actions.

The Pact for the Future may not be a panacea for the world's problems, but it reflects a collective commitment among nations to address pressing global issues through enhanced cooperation and reformed governance structures. It presents a "once-in-a-generation" opportunity for transformative change that could lead the world towards a more equitable, sustainable future that leaves no one behind. But it remains to be seen whether the pact would go the way of the previous, well-intentioned commitments that have not yielded their promises, or usher in a new era of inclusive and effective multilateralism, backed by genuine political will, and sustained action from all nations.

Martins Hile is a sustainability strategist and editorial consultant.